September 18, 2006, report: The Washington guessing game.
Posted by: Phillip Fraas
September 18, 2006

We are halfway through Congress's September session. In two weeks, members of Congress will adjourn for Fall campaigning, and not return until mid-November. The House Committee on Agriculture has been using this short late-Summer session for several hearings to receive testimony on the 2007 Farm Bill. Other than that, there is little action to report on the development of the 2007 Farm Bill.

The guessing game in Washington remains the same as it has been for the past few months: Is Congress likely to use the 2007 Farm Bill process just to pass just an extension of the current farm programs (which expire at the end of the 2007 crop years), or will it strike out in new directions. And, the answer remains elusive.

On the one hand, some in Congress, reflecting the views of many of their farmers who participate in the farm bill programs, have already expressed a preference for a simple extension of current programs. On the other hand, there are those (including, notably, Secretary of Agriculture Johanns) who think the farm programs need to be reshaped, either to deal with trade concerns or to "modernize" the farm programs.

The trade concerns are two: First, if the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations get back on track, it is likely the U.S. negotiators will agree to a substantial reduction in farm bill programs in order to get other countries to commit to open their markets to U.S. agricultural products. Second, even if the Doha Round remains in suspension for the next couple of years, there are those who are worried that other countries might even now be gearing up to attack the WTO-consistency of our current programs, following the lead of the Brazilians who successfully challenged aspects of our cotton program before the WTO. They argue we should use the farm bill process to make the programs WTO-consistent.

The guessing game won't be resolved soon, and likely solid clues to the eventual outcome won't surface until after the November elections. Stay tuned!

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