Posted by: Phillip Fraas
December 12, 2006

Now that the hoopla over the November elections has died down and Congress has wrapped up its work for 2006, more reports and commentary about the upcoming 2007 Farm Bill seem to be surfacing. And, the buzz about the Farm Bill will just increase when Congress returns to Washington in January after the holiday season.

Here are a few samplings of what I have picked up about the Farm Bill in recent days, some straws in the wind if you will.

USDA FARM BILL PROPOSAL: Because USDA proposals typically have a tough time getting traction in a very farm program-friendly Congress, USDA at times has taken a secondary role in the development of the Farm BIll, just laying back and commenting on what Congress develops. Not this time around. Early this month, Secretary of Agriculture Johanns reaffirmed that USDA will submit its own formal Farm BIll proprosal for Congress to consider. However, he said it won't arrive until February or later. A couple of comments here: The later the USDA proposal is, the less impact it will have on congressional deliberations. Also, given that the Bush Administration is trying to jump start Doha Round trade negotiations, which will take some time to bear fruit (if they do), a delay by Johanns on his Farm Bill proposal would dovetail more nicely with what USTR might come up with at the trade negotiating table late this winter--especially since Johanns' proposals likely will seek major changes in current programs that will gain credibililty if they are tied to potential trade gains from a Doha Round accord.

DOHA ROUND HEATS UP: Just today, the Wall Street Journal reported on recent U.S. efforts to pump some life back into the negotiations in the Doha Round trade talks. Some would argue that the only way to have a shot at getting the type of farm program reforms that Secretary Johanns would like to see is to wrap them into a Doha Round agreement. USDA could then argue that such reforms are the price to pay to get increased access for U.S. agricultural products in foreign markets.

FARM BILL SCHEDULE: Both presumptive chairmen of the agriculture committees in the 110th Congress that begins in January, Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Cong. Collin Peterson of Minnesota, have indicated that they want to move with dispatch on developing the 2007 Farm Bill, shooting to complete hearings and drafting work in committee by the end of July and to wrap all floor debate and reconciliation of the differences between the House and Senate by the end of Sepember. Under that schedule, hearings could start in earnest soon after the President submits his budget for FY 2008 in February, even if Secretary Johanns doesn't have his Farm Bill proposal ready by then.

FIVE-YEAR BILL: There is little talk now about a short extension of the current Farm Bill for one or two years to see how the Doha Round trade negotiations go. Rather, it appears the committees are prepared to pass full five-year bill, the same length as the last one.

RENEWABLE ENERGY: Look for a lot of debate about Farm Bill provisions to facilitate the development of renewable energy production. Ethanol is already a hot topic, and will continue to be so, both on the positive and negative side (i.e., what can we do to boost ethanol production, but how do we prevent ethanol's demand for grain as a feedstock from raising the price of traditional animal feeds like corn). Cong. Peterson recently issued a call for an alternative ethanol pilot program to grow 5,000,000 acres of switchgrass as a feedstock for ethanol plants.

EXPANDING THE SAFETY NET: For a number of years, the Farm Bill programs have focused on just wheat, feed grains, oilseeds, rice, cotton, dairy, wool, and sugar. Livestock production and specialty crops (such as fruits, vegetables, and pulses) have not been part of the Farm Bill "safety net" programs designed to stabilize prices or protect the income for producers of those commodities. However, in a recent New York Times article, it was reported that furit and vegetable growers are banding together to lobby next year for inclusion in the new Farm BIll. Accommodating this segment of agriculture could add an interesting new dynamic to the Farm Bill process. The legislation would cost more, so where does the money for these new participants come from? If these producers are included, their congressmen and senators will be more likely to push for passage of the Farm Bill even if it costs more; but on the other hand, if these growers are rebuffed, will that create new votes against the Farm Bill on the House or Senate floor?

COMMODITY-SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS: Dairy: Sen. Schumer (D-NY), soon to be the number 3 Democrat in the new Democratically-controlled Congress, last week said he would fight hard to get the MILC income support program for dairy farmers continued, and mentioned Senators Harkin and Leahy (D-Vt.) as fellow defenders of the program. Cotton: Mark Keenum, long-time aide to Senator Cochran (R-Miss.), was just confirmed as Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services. In his work for Cochran, Keenum spent a lot of time working on the cotton program, and thus will have a wealth of expertise in this area to provide USDA during the Farm Bill process.

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