Posted by: Phillip Fraas
August 20, 2007
Topic: REPORTS ON FARM BILL STATUS--Second Half of 2007

The current farm bill covers the 2002 through 2007 crops, so the new farm bill being considered by Congress now should be passed before the end of this year. Farmers in the southern areas of the country begin serious field work on the 2008 crops in January or February and are entitled to know what the terms of the new farm programs are before they do so.

Congress can meet this end-of-the-year deadline, but it has a lot of work ahead of it and its recent track record for recent farm bills isn't encouraging. Nonetheless, if the money can be found to adequately fund the legislation and the Bush Administration's concerns can be assuaged, a farm bill before Christmas is very possible.

WHERE IT IS NOW: Congress is roughly one-third of the way through the second half of the farm bill process. The first half of the process was the conduct of hearings to receive testimony and gather information on what should and should not go into the new farm bill. That work effectively concluded in early spring of this year.

The second half of the process is the actual drafting of the bill, and there are three main parts to that: House consideration, Senate consideration, and conference meetings to resolve differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill.

The first third is done--the House passed its farm bill on July 27.

As to the middle third of the drafting process--Senate consideration--likely, the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry would already be moving to get the legislation ready for floor action, but Congress left on August 5th for an extended recess, putting off until September the next chance the Senate has to act on the farm bill.

Current reports are that Senator Tom Harkin (Dem.-Iowa), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, will table his "chairman's mark" (which sets out the details of what he proposes to go into the new farm legislation) during the first or second week of September. Then, later in September or in October, his committee is expected to meet to consider amendments to, and vote on, the chairman's bill.

Once the Committee finishes its work, the bill heads to the Senate floor for consideration. At this time, it is unknown when the Senate leadership will schedule it for floor debate. Unless the Senate bill hits a major snag, however, it is reasonable to think that the Senate would complete work on the farm bill later in October.

That would give Congress a good six or seven weeks to complete the last third of the drafting process--conference consideration. Whenever the House and Senate pass legislation and there are differences in what they pass (which is unquestionably what will happen with the farm bill), the two bodies appoint a joint conference committee to resolve their differences. If the conference committee can work out a compromise on the House-Senate differences, it drafts a third version of the bill incorporating those compromises, which Congress debates and votes on. Once the conference report is agreed to by both bodies, the legislation then is sent to the President for his signature.

CONGRESS'S TRACK RECORD ON PREVIOUS FARM BILLS: Since 1977, Congress has drafted six farm bills: the 1977, 1981, 1985, 1990, 1996, and 2002 farm bills. With the first four, Congress completed its work and the legislation became law before the previous farm bill expired. The earliest enactment was in 1977, when the President signed it on September 29, 1977, effective for the 1978 through 1981 crops. The latest was in 1981, when the farm bill didn't become law until December 23, 1981, to cover the 1982 through 1985 crops.

In contrast, the last two farm bills were not finished on time. The 1996 farm bill didn't become law until April 4 of that year, even though the previous farm bill had expired with the completion of the 1995 crop year. Similarly, there was extended debate over the 2002 farm bill, and it wasn't signed until May 13 of that year, effective for the 2002 through 2007 crops. In both cases, farmers were substantially inconvenienced having to go through spring planting not knowing for sure what the terms of the new farm legislation would be; but, in both cases, at least the law was in place well before harvest.

There hasn't been a structural change in the way Congress handles the farm bills to explain the 1996 and 2002 delays; the roadblocks leading to the delayed passage of those two farm bills related to issues that are not present in 2007 or in years before 1996. So, there is no reason to expect a similar delay this time around. In fact, based on where things stand now, this farm bill is on a flight path much closer to those of the four timely farm bills.

WHAT COULD PUSH THINGS INTO 2008: Given, however, that there will be just ten or eleven weeks for Congress to complete work on the farm bill after its returns in September, it wouldn't take much of a delay to push things into 2008. And, once legislation is pushed into a new year, typically it isn't until March or April that Congress gets back to it, as January and February typically are taken up with organizing for the new session of Congress.

What could cause a delay to push the farm bill debate into 2008? First and foremost, funding. Both the House and the Senate agriculture committees are seeking money to pay for new priorities while using existing funding to continue the current programs, which farmers are content with and want extended. However, both the Administration and Congress are committed to reducing deficit spending, and it is unclear where the money will come from to pay for the farm bill add-ons the committees are insisting on. The House proposed to raise the money by taxing earnings of foreign-based businesses, but the Administration has threatened a veto of the House bill, largely based on its concerns about that provision. And, reports are that the Senate has not yet found attractive alternative sources for the needed new funds.

The Administration threat of a veto also could force the farm bill process to a halt this year. Whatever farm bill the House and Senate come up with probably will not have the votes sufficient to override a veto by the President, so Congress has to accommodate enough of the Administration's concerns to remove that threat. Yet, finding a way to bridge any differences between the Administration and Congress that surface (and one already has surfaced as to new farm bill funding) could run out the clock for this year.

IS AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT FARM BILL POSSIBLE? Yes. If Congress is deeply bogged down and not close to an agreement on a new farm bill at the end of the year, the calls for just extending the current farm bill will grow louder. If farmers generally are pleased with the current farm programs, a straight extension becomes an attractive alternative in that it avoids the funding issues and likely the veto threat as well.

However, it is worth reviewing the six previous farm bills, including the 1996 and 2002 bills. Even when Congress didn't get them done on time, it didn't opt for a simple extension. Based on Congress's track record, then, it might not be appropriate yet to throw a straight extension into the mix of alternatives.

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