Posted by: Phillip Fraas
September 29, 2007
Topic: REPORTS ON FARM BILL STATUS--Second Half of 2007

The latest reports are that the Senate agricultural leadship is deadlocked on the terms of the new farm bill. If the Senate Agriculture Committee mark-up gets postponed until mid-October or later, time will become an increasingly important part of the farm bill dynamic. Farm bills rarely are easy to craft or enacted earlier than scheduled; this one looks like it won't be an exception to those rules.

THE SENATE SNARL: It appears that Agriculture Committee Chairman Tom Harkin at this point hasn't found a way to fund the farm bill initiatives he would like to propose. His primary initiative--something he will want to be known as a champion of--is the strengthening of USDA's working lands conservation programs, especially the Conservation Security Program. To accomplish that, it is understood that he would need about $4 billion in new funds over and above the farm bill baseline.

The likely ways he could find the needed funds seem to be blocked right now. One such way would be to impose on the Senate Finance Committee to make changes in Federal tax policy or revenue laws (such as customs receipts, user fees, and so on) to raise the needed money. But, the Finance Committee has already released its farm bill proposal, which, while it will raise additional money for a permanent disaster assistance program, doesn't put further funds at the Agriculture Committee's disposal.

The other way is for the Agriculture Committee to transfer money that otherwise would be spent on farm program direct payments to the conservation programs. The five-year baseline for direct payments is around $26 billion, and there is talk that Harkin would like to cut that by 12% or so, freeing up about $3 billion for conservation. The trouble is, some farm groups strongly oppose cutting direct payments (USDA actually proposed increasing them); and right now, Chairman Harkin doesn't have the votes in Committee for this action.

Because the farm bill funding issues haven't been worked out, Chairman Harkin hasn't convened a meeting of his committee to mark up the farm bill. Until just late this week, rumors were that the mark-up would happen this coming week. Based on latest word from the committee, however, it appears more likely that won't happen. Then, on October 5, the Senate goes into recess for a week, so that means that the earliest the Agriculture Committee can get to the farm bill is mid-October. 

No one is happy that the process is slowing down, but until the budget issue gets resolved or more drastic action is taken by the Senate leadership, the farm bill remains in limbo. 

JUST LOOK AT YOUR CALENDAR: Assuming that the earliest the Senate Agriculture Committee can get to mark-up is in mid to late October, time will begin severely pressuring congressional farm bill negotiators. The farm bill is a huge bill with literally hundreds of sections; so after mark-up is completed, staff will need some time to prepare the legislation for floor debate. Then, the Senate leadership will have to find time in the already tight floor schedule for November to schedule debate on the legislation. 

After the Senate passes the farm bill, staff will need additional time to carefully compare it to the House-passed version and draft a statement of the differences between the two versions of the bill for the use of the House-Senate conference that will be convened to settle those differences.

I wouldn't be surprised that, under the scenario I have sketched out, the conference committee doesn't convene until the first or second week of December. That just leaves a few weeks for this part of the farm bill process to play out. If so, expect very late nights and increasingly short tempers. And, the pressure will mount for the negotiators to take the easiest way out and back away from major changes in programs and other controversial measures.

ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE . . . : As the Senate farm bill has evolved over the past couple of months, it is looking more and more like the House version. That should greatly facilitate the work of the House-Senate conferees. Also, the congressional leadership and the Bush Administration both continue to send strong signals that they will do what is necessary to get a new farm bill this year. So, once the Senate budget battle is over, the process should pick up speed quickly.

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