Posted by: Phillip Fraas
November 19, 2007
Topic: REPORTS ON FARM BILL STATUS--Second Half of 2007

Last Friday, November 16, the Senate Democratic leadership sought to break the deadlock with Republicans over the procedure for Senate floor consideration of the 2007 farm bill by scheduling a cloture vote on the matter. (A minority of the Senate can prevent action on a matter by launching into extended debate on the floor. Cloture, if approved, cuts off that debate and thus allows the Senate to move forward on the matter.) The Democrats needed 60 votes to invoke cloture on the farm bill debate, but only got 55. Soon thereafter, Congress recessed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and will not return until the week of December 3.

Until either the two sides reach an agreement on the procedure to handle the farm bill floor debate, or the Democrats pick up five more Republican votes for cloture, the farm bill will remain stalled. With so little time left in the year, the burning question is what happens next?

BACKGROUND: First of all, it should be noted that, to a great extent, the deadlock in the Senate is not about the farm bill itself. Rather, it is a manifestation of a larger political battle between Senate Democrats and Republicans over the legislative agenda for this Congress. Once the current brouhaha over farm bill debate procedure is resolved, the movement toward enactment of the farm bill could resume in earnest with prospects good for final passage. While there are serious differences between the House and Senate, and between the Administration and both houses, over farm policy, no one is seriously talking about not getting a farm bill if there is time to work through differences.

Second, it also should be noted that, when Congress returns in early December, it effectively will only have about three weeks to wrap up pending business before it adjourns for the year. It would be a herculean task for the House and Senate agriculture committees to complete work on the farm bill in that short period of time, even if the Senate deadlock is broken and the Senate passes the farm bill within a couple days after Congress returns from its Thanksgiving break.  

SOME LIKELY SCENARIOS: Three scenarios come to mind as possible outcomes given the current situation: (1) The deadlock is broken quickly and the agriculture committees work day and night to complete the farm bill, if not by Christmas eve, by some time in January. (2) The deadlock gets broken before adjournment in late December, and the farm bill is enacted very early next Spring. (3) The Senate gives up on breaking the deadlock or some other hold-up ensues, and Congress passes a two-year extension of the current farm bill, putting off the writing of a new farm bill until after the 2008 presidential election.

The first scenario would be the preferred option for those who have worked hard to craft what is in the Senate and House farm bills (both of which run over a thousand pages, and contain hundreds of legislative proposals) or who strongly support law changes proposed by one or the other bill. In this regard, one should keep in mind that just about every key player on farm policy, from the President on down, has expressed a keen interest in getting a new farm bill written.  The commitment, the motivation, and the momentum are there if the procedural roadblocks are cleared. 

The second scenario, however, might be the more likely result, simply because of the lack of time to get the rest of the farm bill process completed in the next four to eight weeks.

There is a recent precedent for this scenario--the 1996 farm bill. The farm bill it replaced, the 1990 farm bill, was effective only through the end of 1995. However, neither house of Congress was able to pass the bill until February of 2006. The House and Senate met in conference on the legislation in March, resolved their differences, and voted to send the bill to the President on March 28. The President signed the bill into law on April 4, 2006, just as many farmers were preparing their fields for spring crops, and after some farmers in the South already had planted.

The third scenario would please farmers and others who are satisfied with current farm programs, and could be necessary, even if the current Senate deadlock is broken, if the House and Senate can't resolve their differences over such contentious issues as the payment limitation, or Congress can't resolve its differences with the Administration on the amount of new spending in the farm bill and how to pay for it. This result, however, would mark the first time in recent memory that Congress did not draft a new farm bill when the old one expired.

Which scenario becomes a reality, or whether a fourth scenario emerges, will depend a lot on what happens on the Senate floor the week of December 3. That in turn will depend a lot on what goes on behind the scenes this week and next at the Senate leadership level and at the agriculture committee level as the House and Senate committee chairmen, Ranking Republicans, and their staffs make what is bound to be an intense effort to push the farm bill forward.     

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