Posted by: Phillip Fraas
December 06, 2007
Topic: REPORTS ON FARM BILL STATUS--Second Half of 2007

CURRENT SITUATION: Although interested senators and staff have been pushing hard over the past couple of weeks to reach an agreement on the number and scope of amendments that could be offered when the Senate brings up the farm bill again (the Democrats want to restrict amendments, the Republicans want a wide open debate), they have not been successful.

In an implicit recognition of the seriousness of the deadlock, Senate Majority Leader Reid yesterday filed a second cloture petition, which if approved by a three-fifths vote would defeat Republican insistence on the right to offer nongermane amendments to the farm bill, such as the alternative minimum tax (AMT) fix, and thus clear the way for speedy passage of the bill. 

The first cloture attempt last month failed when the Democrats got only four of the nine Republicans they need to invoke cloture; and there are no indications that they have picked up any new Republican votes since then. Yet, time is rapidly running out. Because the Senate has a lot of other unfinished business to dispose of before it leaves town for the holidays some ten or so days from now, it would not be surprising if Majority Leader Reid simply pulls the farm bill from the floor for the rest of the year if he doesn't get cloture tomorrow.

WHAT HAPPENS THEN? If the Senate fails to act on the farm bill this year, the first consequence will be that Congress likely will add to the omnibus appropriations bill it intends to pass next week provisions to extend current farm bill programs that are close to expiring, such as the dairy price support program. For how long Congress might extend current programs is hard to predict. One suggestion I recently heard was that the extensions might run through the end of March 2008, just enough time for Congress to complete work on the farm bill if they turn to it as soon as they return in 2008.

In that regard, Congress typically doesn't meet much in January--in fact, it has been reported that it won't even convene the 2008 session until January 15--so work on the farm bill might not start up again until late January at the earliest.

Further, the key members of the Senate leadership and the agriculture committee will have to continue working over the holidays to find a way to reach an agreement that will break this impasse preventing a vote on the legislation. Until that happens, then the farm bill will remain dead in the water even after Congress convenes in January.

However, an important point to keep in mind is that the current hold-up in the Senate has very little to do with the merits of the farm bill. It appears that the farm bill just happens to be a convenient vehicle for a test of wills between the Democrats and Republicans over control of the Senate's legislative agenda. Once that issue is disposed of, there is every reason to expect that the debate on the farm bill will move forward without delay. That would mean that Congress could put the new law in place before spring planting in the midwest.

If that happens, then the trials and tribulations the legislation is going through now will quickly be forgotten. Of course, the key word in the last sentence was "If." There is no certainty as to the path the farm bill will take in coming weeks and months. All we can do is hang on for the ride.

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