Posted by: Phillip Fraas
January 30, 2008
Topic: REPORTS ON 2008 FARM BILL STATUS--January 2008 To Enactment

The caption for this posting is a play on the title of the famous movie about World War I, "All Quiet on the Western Front." And, the reference is made on purpose. Like the Allies and Germany fighting each other in that war, Congress and the Bush Administration are in sort of a war over the farm bill. But, as shown in the movie, fighting doesn't go on all the time in a war; there are quiet times as well. And, this past week or so has been such a period for the farm bill fight.

To push the analogy a little further, in the movie, World War I came to an end soon after the quiet period depicted in it; and there is every chance the farm bill fight will be resolved soon as well.

Why? Politics abhors a deadlock. The two sides will soon get tired of staring at each other across the table and decide to move forward one way or the other. There are couple of ways forward other than completing work on the new farm bill-let the current farm bill expire and revert to permanent price support law that has been suspended for many years, or enact a two-year extension of the current farm bill. Neither of these is close to being as attractive as completing work on the new farm bill. Permanent law is archaic and enacting a two-year extension would be to abandon literally hundreds of non-controversial and desirable provisions included in the new farm bill, which cumulatively have a huge base of supporters.

Further, time is running out. Farmers are already planning, or preparing their fields, for the 2008 crops. The current farm bill is effective only through the 2007 crops; a new program is needed very soon for this year's crops.

Finally, if history is any guide, Congress and the Administration will find a way to get the job done. In the six farm bill cycles I have followed prior to this one, there has never been a two-year extension in lieu of a new farm bill nor a reversion to permanent law. Some how, the new farm bill always got written, although in one instance not until some crops were already in the ground.

Having said all that, a little hedging is in order. The Administration appears entrenched in its insistence that the new farm bill not include any revenue-raisers (both the House and Senate bills have such provisions in order to keep the bill within the budget) and that payment eligibility rules be reformed so as to exclude persons with higher incomes. And, perhaps ominously, the President didn't have a word to say about the farm bill or agriculture in his state of the union address on Monday. Typically, these annual speeches include at least a passing reference to farming. Is this a signal that farm policy will not be a high priority for him in his last year of office? If so, the Administration might not push hard to find a compromise to get the farm bill process moving again.

On the other side of the fight, while congressional leaders haven't drawn any similar lines in the sand, they have shown no signs of caving in entirely on these issues.

In short, there doesn't appear at this moment any likely scenario for resolving the differences and getting the farm bill done. But there is no reason not to expect that, within a week or so, we'll see the outlines of a break-through compromise starting to form.

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FARM BILL UPDATE: All Quiet On The Farm Bill Front

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